What you need to know:
- Vision 2040 aims to transition Uganda from a low-income to a competitive upper-middle-income country by 2040, with a focus on increasing the manufacturing sector’s GDP contribution through agro-industrialization, mineral beneficiation, and light manufacturing.
- There is a general perception that the government has not sufficiently promoted tourism, despite its potential as a high-productivity sector alongside manufacturing and construction, which are known for absorbing unskilled and semi-skilled labor.
The government has set an ambitious goal to increase the economy tenfold, aiming to grow from USD 49.5 billion in FY 2023/2024 to USD 500 billion within the next 15 years.
The NDPIV, the fourth of six National Development Plans for Uganda Vision 2040, is the final plan designed to achieve the Global Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
NDPIV’s objective is “to achieve higher household incomes and employment for sustainable socio-economic transformation.” Its theme is “Sustainable industrialization for inclusive growth, employment, and wealth creation.”
Despite some skepticism about NDPIV’s potential to drive the nation towards double-digit economic growth, Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development Permanent Secretary Ramathan Ggoobi has encouraged Ugandans to support the economic advancement strategy. He announced that implementation has already commenced.
“I envision Uganda reaching five hundred billion dollars; we are currently at about 53 billion dollars,” said Ggoobi, who is also the Secretary to the Treasury.
The government plans to focus on four key areas as it moves forward with the plan that will replace NDPIII. Key growth sectors include agro-industrialization and light manufacturing, with a target of increasing this sector to twenty billion dollars by 2040. This sector is crucial, employing a large portion of Ugandans and acting as a significant economic catalyst.
Ggoobi made these remarks at the 10th annual Uganda National Journalism Awards ceremony at Mestil Hotel in Kampala.
However, there are concerns about Uganda’s global industrial competitiveness. The African Development Bank Group’s recent report placed Uganda’s manufacturing sector 123rd out of 153 countries.
Structural transformation remains a challenge, with six out of ten Ugandans dependent on agricultural employment. The slow pace of transformation is attributed to low labor productivity in agriculture, slow mechanization, limited innovation, and minimal business development.
Economists agree that industrialization could be a crucial driver for structural transformation. Vision 2040 aims to transition Uganda from a low-income to a competitive upper-middle-income country by 2040, with a focus on increasing the manufacturing sector’s GDP contribution through agro-industrialization, mineral beneficiation, and light manufacturing.
In addition to industrialization, Ggoobi highlighted the government’s plan to revitalize the tourism sector, targeting 50 billion dollars in revenue by 2040. There is a general perception that the government has not sufficiently promoted tourism, despite its potential as a high-productivity sector alongside manufacturing and construction, which are known for absorbing unskilled and semi-skilled labor.
In a separate interview, Deputy Secretary to the Treasury Patrick Ocailap emphasized the government’s belief that revitalizing the tourism sector will bring opportunities. Investments will focus on improving infrastructure, ensuring security, and enhancing tourism attractiveness, including better airline connectivity through Uganda Airlines.
The extractives and capital sector, particularly minerals and oil, are seen as vital for Uganda’s future growth. Investments in these areas are crucial, even amid global discussions on the phase-out of fossil fuels. The government aims to enhance mineral beneficiation for value addition. Increased oil investments since 2022 have boosted net foreign assets by 11 percent, reaching USD 3.9 billion in 2023.
The strategy also underscores the potential of science, technology, and innovation, with Ggoobi highlighting their significant economic impact. He stressed the need to embrace emerging technologies and invest in new growth sources.
To achieve these goals, the government plans to improve regulatory enforcement and implement existing laws to reduce chaos and ensure efficient use of limited funds through Indicative Planning Figures (IPFs).
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